Will any 2026 legislative general race be certified with a margin under 50 votes?

Open Closes Nov 3, 2026 150 credits traded

Any of the 40 House or 10 Senate general-election races.

Outcome	Probability
Yes	57.0%
No	43.0%

Price history from the opening odds to the latest trade. Hover the chart for the probability at any point.

Resolution

Resolves YES if, in at least one 2026 Alaska State Legislature race (State House or State Senate) with two or more candidates, the certified final-round margin between the winner and the runner-up is fewer than 50 votes. If a recount occurs, the post-recount certified margin governs.

Source: Alaska Division of Elections certified results
Expected: December 2026 (post-recount certification)

Recent trades

Action	Shares	Credits	Price after	When
Bought Yes	280.41	150	57.0%	Jul 20, 2026 4:32 AM AK

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