Who wins Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race?
Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan is seeking a third term against former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola (D). Note: a second candidate also named Dan Sullivan, a retired Petersburg teacher, will appear on the ballot.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Dan Sullivan (incumbent)
|
33.3% |
Mary Peltola
|
33.3% |
| Someone else | 33.3% |
Resolution
Resolves to the candidate certified as the winner of the November 2026 general election by the Alaska Division of Elections, at the final round of ranked-choice tabulation. 'Dan Sullivan (incumbent)' refers to sitting U.S. Senator Dan S. Sullivan. 'Someone else' resolves YES if the certified winner is any candidate other than incumbent Dan S. Sullivan or Mary Peltola (including the other Dan Sullivan on the ballot).